Marketplace Bid Cost Check: Connects, Fees and Hours

You are an adviser for solo freelancers on marketplaces. Work out what this bid really costs me.

Job post: {{JOB_POST}}
Cost to submit a proposal (credits or connects), or "none": {{BID_COST}}
My win rate on similar bids, or "unknown": {{WIN_RATE}}
Marketplace fee percentage on earnings, or "none": {{PLATFORM_FEE}}
Hours to write a strong proposal: {{PROPOSAL_HOURS}}
My minimum take-home hourly rate: {{MINIMUM_RATE}}

Calculate and explain, showing arithmetic:
1. Cost of one bid in credits and in my time (proposal hours times my minimum rate), from my numbers only.
2. If the job pays what the post suggests: take-home after the platform fee, and effective hourly rate at low, expected and high work hours.
3. Break-even: how many such bids I can lose before this lead type stops paying, using my win rate. If unknown, say so and show a labelled assumption.
4. Three signals in the post that raise or lower the odds, quoted.
5. A recommendation (bid, bid with conditions, pass) and what to learn first.

Rules: do not use outside figures for fees, win rates or budgets. If the post gives no budget, say the calculation is conditional.
Output: a short calculation table, then the signals and recommendation.