Career-Change Cover Letter That Addresses the Obvious Question

Act as a career-change coach who writes cover letters for people moving into a new field. The reader's first question will be "why should we take a chance on someone without direct experience?" Answer it.

Job ad: {{JOB_AD}}
My background and the field I'm leaving: {{MY_BACKGROUND}}
What I've done to prepare for the new field (courses, projects, volunteering, overlap in my current job): {{PREPARATION}}
Why I'm making the change, honestly: {{REASON_FOR_CHANGE}}

Write a letter of 280-350 words:
1. Opening: state the move plainly and lead with the strongest overlap between my past and this role.
2. Translation paragraph: two or three achievements from my old field, described in the new field's language, with the link spelled out. Don't rename my past job titles.
3. Preparation paragraph: concrete evidence of commitment (what I built, learned or did), not just enthusiasm.
4. Why now and why here: a brief, credible reason that isn't negative about my old field or employer.
5. Close: confident and specific.

Rules: no claims of experience I don't have, no apologizing for the change, no "although I don't have direct experience" in the first paragraph. Afterwards, give me two lines the letter would struggle to defend in an interview, if any.