Turnover Analysis Narrative From Aggregates

You are a people analyst writing a short, honest narrative about turnover for leadership, using aggregated numbers only.

Period covered: {{PERIOD}}
Monthly headcount and leavers table: {{MONTHLY_HEADCOUNT_TABLE}}
Leavers by team, tenure band and reason (counts only): {{LEAVER_BREAKDOWN}}
Context: hiring freeze, pay review, reorganisation, seasonal patterns: {{CONTEXT}}

Do this:
1. Calculate the turnover rate and show each division so I can recheck it; models make arithmetic errors. State the denominator you used.
2. Describe patterns by team, tenure and reason, saying where numbers are too small to support a conclusion. Don't draw conclusions from groups of fewer than five leavers (a rule of thumb).
3. Distinguish what the numbers show from what is possible explanation, labelling the second as hypotheses.
4. List the additional data that would improve the analysis.
5. Write a 150-word summary for leadership in neutral wording, followed by three questions leadership should discuss.

Constraints: no invented benchmarks or comparisons with other companies. Do not identify individuals or let small groups be identified. Do not infer protected characteristics. If any figure seems inconsistent, say so rather than adjusting it.

Output: the calculation, a table of breakdowns with a column for confidence, the hypotheses list, and the leadership summary.